By Sharyn Macnamara, senior writer African Mining, incorporating Mining Mirror
Mining and Technical Exhibitions (MTE) experienced yet another successful week in the North West at the famous Mooinooi and Rustenburg MTE combo shows in the western limb chrome and platinum belt on 9 and 11 April 2024 respectively, after breaking its own exhibitor and visitor records last year.
MTE Mooinooi Mining & Industrial Exhibition 2024: By the end of the second leg of the tour, MTE had hosted a total of 622 visitors and 179 exhibiting companies. © Mining and Technical Exhibitions (MTE)
Mooinooi and Rustenburg combo success
The company hosted a total of 622 mining professionals and 55 and 124 exhibitors at the two shows respectively. “And this despite the downswing in PGMs pricing in the market,” said Andrew Macnamara, operations director at MTE. “Although the rain in the morning at Mooinooi perhaps affected numbers on the day initially, many visitors were able to attend the Rustenburg show on the 11th instead. Local operations management were core to the 522 visitors on the Thursday leg of the show.”
The current PGM’s market
The dip in PGM’s pricing and the restructuring in local operations has no doubt affected the end-user appetite for, and approach to, spending, says Macnamara. Sibanye-Stillwaters’s CEO, Neal Froneman recently noted at the PGMs Industry Day held in Johannesburg in the same week that, “When the global demand mix does not match the global supply mix there is a material risk of significant price volatility and long term demand destruction for specific metals due to substitution or alternative technologies.”
The fact that PGMs are produced as a basket of metals and cannot be selectively extracted further complicates matters. Froneman also noted at the event that there is light at the end of the long-term tunnel due to a few factors. Although some of the PGMs – especially platinum, ruthenium and iridium – have a significant non-auto underpin, the majority of PGM demand is derived from autos and absolute light duty vehicle (LDV) demand is forecast to grow over the rest of this decade. Although transition to electric powertrains will inevitably continue, it will require the application of multiple technologies, with hybrids as an intermediate alternative. He also said that he foresees that increasing LDV demand and hence PGM demand is likely to coincide with falling interest rates, however on a negative note, primary PGM supply is likely to decline due to underinvestment in growth, and in the shorter-term, will experience possible closure of loss-making production. However, current recovery remains subdued in recycling supply.
“It all starts and ends in the market,” said Froneman, “with the understanding of the evolution of mobility necessary for the future relevance of the PGM industry.” Although ongoing growth in BEV’s share of mobility is inevitable – it is moderating and PGM demand and supply over the last few years has in fact been relatively consistent, suggesting that current low PGM basket prices are driven mainly by de-stocking rather than structural changes.”
Froneman said that the PGM market demand to 2030 is solid, driven by ongoing demand from ICE, and with hybrids providing an emerging upside support. Also, longer term demand growth will be the result of the growing requirements for a hydrogen economy (currently favouring platinum, iridium and ruthenium) creating the need for substitution to avoid demand destruction. Froneman made a point of saying that PGMs are not precious metals, but they are rare, and with that in mind, they are significant for the future.
Macnamara concludes, “And that, in a nutshell, is exactly why MTE will continue its focus on PGMs in the SADC regions.”