Coal’s changing role in the Just Energy Transition

Heleen Tshibumbu, specialist journalist and technical writer, asks the question, “Can coal be part of a ‘just’ transition, or is it becoming the villain in South Africa’s energy story?”

South Africa faces a defining moment in its energy story as rising demand and population growth put pressure on an already strained electricity supply. In 1991, the nation could generate 48 000 megawatts of power and in 2025, this number is expected to hover around 30 000 megawatts. To address the shortfall, the country adopted demand-side management in 2008, introducing loadshedding as a method to balance the grid, casting a dark shadow over our economy in the process.

Heleen Tshibumbu, specialist journalist and technical writer. Supplied by Heleen Tshibumbu

While solar and other renewable energy sources are gaining ground, coal continues to anchor the country’s heavy industries. Mining and manufacturing require consistent, reliable electricity – a need that renewables, although promising, cannot yet fully meet. Many large industrial players have started to incorporate renewable projects, but their core operations still depend on coal-fired plants to supply the base load required to operate heavy machinery. Maintaining and upgrading current coal infrastructure remains essential. The shift in coal use has already driven an 18% drop in emissions, demonstrating progress in reducing environmental impact. Our government’s efforts are captured in the Energy Action Plan, which calls for quick interventions: restoring Eskom’s performance, updating the energy policy, encouraging rooftop solar installations and long-awaited restructuring of Eskom. One notable initiative brings solar rooftops to lower-income areas, supplying both electricity and WiFi, highlighting the advantages of decentralised renewable energy. Most will agree that the Energy Action Plan is a great start, but how do we move from “plan” to “action”?

Despite these advances, electricity costs remain an urgent issue with yearly tariff and electricity price increases, taking electricity from being a basic human right to a luxury. While the South African government is committed to widespread access, national energy security and regional co-operation in the Southern  African Development Community (SADC), more should be done to solve the energy crisis South Africans are facing. Industrial development should be a top priority, and there is a growing movement to manufacture solar panels and other renewable technology domestically. This can create much-needed jobs, strengthening local capacity and adding to the economic growth of the country.

To maintain a stable supply, the Integrated Energy Plan recommends adding an extra 20 000 megawatts to the national grid. It is not a race to renewables, but a gradual transition. Instead of shutting down power stations, South Africa needs a clear path to ensure coal continues to support electricity generation as the rollout of renewables expands. Coal-fired stations are the backbone of the existing power system, supporting both communities and Industry until renewable energy and battery storage become fully established. The role that coal plays in community development should not be downplayed, as it provides jobs and opportunities to areas that might otherwise suffer from poverty, underdevelopment and a lack of essential services if these coal mines were not present. Coal is expected to remain part of South Africa’s power generation for decades, at least for another 30 years. We need to keep in mind that the approach is not about setting different energy sources against one another but about creating solutions tailored to South Africa’s economic and social needs.

Looking at what lies ahead, as South Africans, we are painfully aware that transition is never easy, and the journey to a more balanced energy mix will not be any different. Without careful planning, key industries could be forced to close, which is something we simply can’t afford. With renewable energy, developing modern storage technologies is vital to ensure that South Africa can meet industrial needs as it moves toward a cleaner energy mix. At the Coal and Energy Transition Day that was held on 23 July 2025,  James Mackay, head of the Energy Council of South Africa, pointed out that renewable projects are advancing too slowly, mostly due to challenges in securing investment. Over the next ten years, roughly R2-trillion will be needed to update and expand the energy system. The debate continues over whether taxpayers or consumers should carry this burden, but this seems impossible to even consider when you look at the current spiralling electricity prices, pushed higher by inefficiencies, rising municipal debt and unresolved legacy costs. The silver lining here is that consistent, long-term planning in the renewable sector could reduce electricity prices for future generations. In the meantime, we need a new outlook and plan of action on mine closures, as no mine has an unlimited lifespan. These plans must include retraining workers, reskilling and upskilling, expanding industrial zones and managing resources more effectively. If mining companies work together, they can find new uses for existing facilities, making the sector more adaptable. The move toward low-carbon industries should go beyond simply building wind farms in the Northern Cape or installing solar panels on roofs to creating entirely new industrial value chains, as the Minerals Council is already working to achieve.

Obstacles remain in the form of restrictive regulations, tax pressures, environmental compliance, crime and corruption, but making better use of current resources and encouraging co-operation between industry players – such as through Social and Labour Plans – could open up new opportunities and lay the groundwork for a stronger sector.  While the challenges are many, so are the prospects for growth and innovation, provided the industry maintains transparency and a willingness to embrace change.